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Johnson, R.S.H.; Alila, Y. |
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Title |
Nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach: Investigating forest harvesting effects on floods in two large, nested, and snow-dominated watersheds in British Columbia, Canada |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2023 |
Publication |
Journal of Hydrology |
Abbreviated Journal |
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625 |
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129970 |
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Probabilistic physics, Forest hydrology, Attribution science, Flood Frequency Analysis, Stochastic hydrology, Nonstationarity |
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Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area. |
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0022-1694 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Johnson2023129970 |
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245 |
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Dąbrowska, J.; Orellana, A.E.M.; Kilian, W.; Moryl, A.; Cielecka, N.; Michałowska, K.; Policht-Latawiec, A.; Michalski, A.; Bednarek, A.; Włóka, A. |
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Between flood and drought: How cities are facing water surplus and scarcity |
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Journal Article |
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2023 |
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Journal of Environmental Management |
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345 |
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118557 |
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Urban ecosystem management, Urban floods, Urban droughts, Nature-based solutions, Climate change, Urban resilience |
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Droughts and floods are weather-related hazards affecting cities in all climate zones and causing human deaths and material losses on all inhabited continents. The aim of this article is to review, analyse and discuss in detail the problems faced by urban ecosystems due to water surplus and scarcity, as well as the need of adaptation to climate change taking into account the legislation, current challenges and knowledge gaps. The literature review indicated that urban floods are much more recognised than urban droughts. Amongst floods, flash floods are currently the most challenging, which by their nature are difficult to monitor. Research and adaptation measures related to water-released hazards use cutting-edge technologies for risk assessment, decision support systems, or early warning systems, among others, but in all areas knowledge gaps for urban droughts are evident. Increasing urban retention and introducing Low Impact Development and Nature-based Solutions is a remedy for both droughts and floods in cities. There is the need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies and creating a holistic approach. |
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0301-4797 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Dabrowska2023118557 |
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227 |
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Tariq, A.; Beni, L.H.; Ali, S.; Adnan, S.; Hatamleh, W.A. |
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An effective geospatial-based flash flood susceptibility assessment with hydrogeomorphic responses on groundwater recharge |
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Journal Article |
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2023 |
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Groundwater for Sustainable Development |
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23 |
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100998 |
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Flood hydrology, AHP, Flood susceptibility, FR, Unit stream power, GIS |
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Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, resulting in the extensive destruction of infrastructure, property, and human life. The destructive potential of a flood depends on numerous factors, including the size of the flood, the rate of flooding, the time it takes for the water to move through a given area, the river’s planform and cross-section geometry, and other similar factors. The present study is a unique analysis of flood mapping that was accomplished with the help of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Frequency Ratio (FR), and hydrogeomorphic response to floods by integrating geospatial analysis and unit stream power modeling. The Indus catchment region of Pakistan is where the subject topic is put into practice. According to the hydrologic analysis of the yearly peak discharge, the hydro-station in Gilgit-Baltistan can move boulders measuring up to 0.5 m in height during significant flooding. On the other hand, there will be no change to the geometry of the cross-section throughout 1980–2020 in Gilgit-Baltistan. The flood susceptibility map is constructed using data from twelve influencing parameters, including elevation, proximity to the drainage network, slope, drainage density, geomorphology, rainfall, the curvature of the topography, flow accumulation, geology, land use, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), and Stream Power Index (SPI). The area under the curve (AUC) approach, which demonstrates a substantial degree of accuracy (85% and 83%), is utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of the AHP and FR. The current study fills the gaps between the geospatial approach and the hydrogeomorphic assessment of flood to determine flood susceptibility. |
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2352-801x |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Tariq2023100998 |
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234 |
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Hofmann, H.; Pearce, J.K.; Hayes, P.; Golding, S.D.; Hall, N.; Baublys, K.A.; Raiber, M.; Suckow, A. |
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Multi-tracer approach to constrain groundwater flow and geochemical baseline assessments for CO2 sequestration in deep sedimentary basins |
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Journal Article |
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2023 |
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International Journal of Coal Geology |
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104438 |
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CO geological storage, Great Artesian Basin, Groundwater chemistry, Isotopic tracer, Surat Basin |
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Geological storage of gases will be necessary in the push to net zero and the energy transition to reduce carbon emissions to atmosphere. These include CO2 geological storage in suitable sandstone reservoirs. Understanding groundwater flow, connectivity and hydrogeochemical processes in aquifer and storage systems is vital to prevent risk and protect important water resources, such as the Great Artesian Basin. Here, we provide a ‘tool-box’ of geochemical assessment methods to provide information on flow patterns through the basin’s aquifers (changes in chemistry along flow path), stagnant versus flowing conditions (cosmogenic isotopes and noble gases), inter-aquifer connectivity and seal properties (major ions, Sr and stable isotopes), water quality (major ions and metals) and general assessments on residence times of groundwater (cosmogenic isotopes and noble gases). This information can be used with reservoir and groundwater models to inform on possible changes in the above-mentioned processes and serve as input parameters for CO2 injection impact modelling. We demonstrate the use and interpretation on an example of a potential CO2 storage geological sequestration site in the Surat Basin, part of the Great Artesian Basin, and the aquifers that overly the reservoir. The stable water isotopes are depleted compared to average rainfall and most likely indicate greater contributions from monsoonal rain events from the northern monsoonal troughs, where amount and rainout effects lead to the depletion rather than colder recharge climates. This is supported by the modern recharge temperatures from noble gases. Inter-aquifer mixing between the Precipice Sandstone reservoir and the Hutton Sandstone aquifer seems unlikely as the Sr isotope ratios are distinctly different suggesting that the Evergreen Formation is a seal in the locations sampled. Mixing, however, occurs on the edges of the basin, especially in the south-east and east where the Surat Basin transitions into the Clarence-Moreton Basin. Groundwater flow appears to be to the south in the Precipice Sandstone, with a component of flow east to the Clarence-Morton Basin. The cosmogenic isotopes and noble gases strongly indicate very long residence times of groundwater in the central south Precipice Sandstone around a proposed storage site. 14C values below analytical uncertainty, R36Cl ratios at secular equilibrium as well as high He concentrations and high 40Ar/36Ar ratios support the argument that groundwater flow in this area is extremely slow or groundwater is stagnant. The results of this study reflect the geological and hydrogeological complexities of sedimentary basins and that baseline studies, such as this one, are paramount for management strategies. |
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0166-5162 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ hofmann_multi-tracer_2023 |
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165 |
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Smedley, P.L.; Bearcock, J.M.; Ward, R.S.; Crewdson, E.; Bowes, M.J.; Darling, W.G.; Smith, A.C. |
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Monitoring of methane in groundwater from the Vale of Pickering, UK: Temporal variability and source discrimination |
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Journal Article |
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2023 |
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Chemical Geology |
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636 |
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121640 |
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Aquifer, Biogenic, Ethane, Hydrocarbons, Methane, Shale gas |
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Groundwater abstracted from aquifers in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire, UK and monitored over the period 2015–2022, shows evidence of variable but commonly high concentrations of dissolved CH4. Sampled groundwater from the Jurassic organic-rich Kimmeridge Clay Formation (boreholes up to 180 m depth) has concentrations up to 57 mg/L, and concentrations up to 59 mg/L are found in groundwater from underlying confined Corallian Group limestone (borehole depths 50–227 m). The high concentrations are mainly from boreholes in the central parts of the vale. Small concentrations of ethane (C2H6, up to 800 μg/L) have been found in the Kimmeridge Clay and confined Corallian groundwaters, and of propane (C3H8, up to 160 μg/L) in deeper boreholes (110–180 m) from these formations. The concentrations are typically higher in groundwater from the deeper boreholes and vary with hydrostatic pressure, reflecting the pressure control on CH4 solubility. The occurrences contrast with groundwater from shallow Quaternary superficial deposits which have low CH4 concentrations (up to 0.39 mg/L), and with the unconfined and semi-confined sections of the Corallian aquifer (up to 0.7 mg/L) around the margins of the vale. Groundwater from the Quaternary, Kimmeridge Clay formations and to a small extent the confined Corallian aquifer, supports local private-water supplies, that from the peripheral unconfined sections of Corallian also supports public supply for towns and villages across the region. Dissolved methane/ethane (C1/C2) ratios and stable-isotopic compositions (δ13C-CH4, δ2H-CH4 and δ13C-CO2) suggest that the high-CH4 groundwater from both the Kimmeridge Clay and confined Corallian formations derives overwhelmingly from biogenic reactions, the methanogenesis pathway by CO2 reduction. A small minority of groundwater samples shows a more enriched δ13C-CH4 composition (−50 to −44 ‰) which has been interpreted as due to anaerobic or aerobic methylotrophic oxidation in situ or post-sampling oxidation, rather than derivation by a thermogenic route. Few of the existing groundwater sites are proximal to abandoned or disused conventional hydrocarbon wells that exist in the region, and little evidence has been found for an influence on groundwater dissolved gases from these sites. The Vale of Pickering has also been under recent consideration for development of an unconventional hydrocarbon (shale-gas) resource. In this context, the monitoring of dissolved gases has been an important step in establishing the high-CH4 baseline of groundwaters from Jurassic deposits in the region and in apportioning their sources and mechanisms of genesis. |
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0009-2541 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ smedley_monitoring_2023 |
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172 |
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