Bresinsky, L., Kordilla, J., Hector, T., Engelhardt, I., Livshitz, Y., & Sauter, M. (2023). Managing climate change impacts on the Western Mountain Aquifer: Implications for Mediterranean karst groundwater resources. Journal of Hydrology X, 20, 100153.
Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.
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Brook, G. A., Marais, E., Srivastava, P., & Jordan, T. (2007). Timing of lake-level changes in Etosha Pan, Namibia, since the middle Holocene from OSL ages of relict shorelines in the Okondeka region. Quaternary International, 175(1), 29–40.
Abstract: In 2003 examination of aerial photographs revealed a series of previously unknown relict shorelines on the arcuate ridge, possibly a clay lunette dune, that marks the western boundary of Etosha Pan in Namibia. The shorelines are 120–600m wide and the most prominent extend for tens of km around the lunette dune. The shorelines were examined on the ground in 2004 and an attempt was made to date the three lowest levels at ca. 5, 2.5 and 1m above the present pan surface. The OSL ages obtained indicate higher and more prolonged lake conditions than today at ca. 6.4, 4.0 and 2.1ka with the youngest shoreline sediments resting on an ancient pan surface dating to ca. 13ka. The evidence indicates dry conditions in the pan at ca. 13ka, wetter conditions and higher lake levels in the middle Holocene followed by a decline in lake levels to the present. Periods of inundation were of sufficient duration to produce shorelines at the southwestern end of the pan due to the prevailing northeasterly winds that would have maximized wave action along this section of the pan margin. The Etosha findings, together with other regional paleoclimate data, suggest four periods of increased wetness in SW Africa during the Holocene at 7–5, 4.5–3.5, 2.5–1.7 and ca. 1.0ka. There is widespread evidence for the oldest of these periods suggesting that it was a prominent and widespread interval of wetness. Prior to ca. 8.0ka the climate may have been drier than today.
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Brook, G. A., Railsback, L. B., & Marais, E. (2011). Reassessment of carbonate ages by dating both carbonate and organic material from an Etosha Pan (Namibia) stromatolite: Evidence of humid phases during the last 20ka. Quaternary International, 229(1), 24–37.
Abstract: Previous research on lacustrine stromatolites from Etosha Pan in Namibia obtained ages on carbonate close to or beyond the limits of radiocarbon dating. These ages suggested that the basin was likely not subject to extensive flooding during the last ca. 40ka. This study shows that AMS radiocarbon ages for the carbonate of a stromatolite from Poacher’s Point are 15–21ka older than ages for organic material in the stromatolite structure. Calibrated ages range from 30 to 40ka for carbonate and 3–19ka for the organic residue. The new ages, together with petrographic and isotopic data for the stromatolite, have provided important new information on past flooding of Etosha Pan including evidence of prolonged lacustrine conditions during the Holocene Climatic Optimum.
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Brutsaert, W. (2017). Global land surface evaporation trend during the past half century: Corroboration by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Advances in Water Resources, 106, 3–5.
Abstract: Analyses of satellite data mainly over the world’s ocean surfaces have shown that during 1986–2006 global average values of atmospheric water vapor, precipitation and evaporation have increased at a relative rate of 0.0013a−1; this is roughly in accordance with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation for the average temperature trend during this period, and amounts to 0.065K−1 at the average temperature of T=14∘C. Application of this concept over the world’s land surfaces yields an average global evaporation trend during the past half century of around 0.4 to 0.5 mma−2; this confirms the values obtained in previous studies with totally different methods.
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Bullock, L. A., & Parnell, J. (2017). Selenium and molybdenum enrichment in uranium roll-front deposits of Wyoming and Colorado, USA. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 180, 101–112.
Abstract: Sandstone uranium (U) roll-front deposits of Wyoming and Colorado (USA) are important U resources, and may provide a terrestrial source for critical accessory elements, such as selenium (Se), molybdenum (Mo), and tellurium (Te). Due to their associated toxicity, MoSeTe occurrences in roll-fronts should also be carefully monitored during U leaching and ore processing. While elevated MoSe concentrations in roll-fronts are well established, very little is known about Te occurrence in such deposits. This study aims to establish MoSeTe concentrations in Wyoming and Colorado roll-fronts, and assess the significance of these deposits in an environmental and mineral exploration context. Sampled roll-front deposits, produced by oxidized groundwater transportation through a sandstone, show high MoSe content in specific redox zones, and low Te, relative to crustal means. High Se concentrations (up to 168ppm) are restricted to a narrow band of alteration at the redox front. High Mo content (up to 115ppm) is typically associated with the reduced mineralized nose and seepage zones of the roll-front, ahead of the U orebody. Elevated trace element concentrations are likely sourced from proximal granitic intrusions, tuffaceous deposits, and local pyritic mudstones. Elevated MoSe content in the sampled roll fronts may be regarded as a contaminant in U in-situ recovery and leaching processing, and may pose an environmental threat in groundwaters and soils, so extraction should be carefully monitored. The identification of peak concentrations of MoSe can also act as a pathfinder for the redox front of a roll-front, and help to isolate the U orebody, particularly in the absence of gamma signatures.
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