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Johnson, R.S.H.; Alila, Y. |
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Title |
Nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach: Investigating forest harvesting effects on floods in two large, nested, and snow-dominated watersheds in British Columbia, Canada |
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2023 |
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Journal of Hydrology |
Abbreviated Journal |
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625 |
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129970 |
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Probabilistic physics, Forest hydrology, Attribution science, Flood Frequency Analysis, Stochastic hydrology, Nonstationarity |
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Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area. |
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0022-1694 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Johnson2023129970 |
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245 |
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Bresinsky, L.; Kordilla, J.; Hector, T.; Engelhardt, I.; Livshitz, Y.; Sauter, M. |
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Title |
Managing climate change impacts on the Western Mountain Aquifer: Implications for Mediterranean karst groundwater resources |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2023 |
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Journal of Hydrology X |
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20 |
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100153 |
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Groundwater recharge, Storage, Hydrogeological droughts, Climate change effects, Groundwater management, Mitigation of climate change effects |
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Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge. |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Bresinsky2023100153 |
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223 |
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Rusli, S.R.; Weerts, A.H.; Mustafa, S.M.T.; Irawan, D.E.; Taufiq, A.; Bense, V.F. |
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Quantifying aquifer interaction using numerical groundwater flow model evaluated by environmental water tracer data: Application to the data-scarce area of the Bandung groundwater basin, West Java, Indonesia |
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Journal Article |
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2023 |
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Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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50 |
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101585 |
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Aquifer interaction, Multi-layer groundwater abstraction, Environmental water tracers, Groundwater flow model, Bandung groundwater basin |
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Study Region: Bandung groundwater basin, Indonesia. Study focus: Groundwater abstraction of various magnitudes, pumped out from numerous depths in a multitude of layers of aquifers, stimulates different changes in hydraulic head distribution, including ones under vertical cross-sections. This generates groundwater flow in the vertical direction, where groundwater flows within its storage from the shallow to the underlying confined aquifers. In the Bandung groundwater basin, previous studies have identified such processes, but quantitative evaluations have never been conducted, with data scarcity mainly standing as one of the major challenges. In this study, we utilize the collated (1) environmental water tracer data, including major ion elements (Na+/K+, Ca2＋, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−,HCO3−), stable isotope data (2H and δ18O), and groundwater age determination (14C), in conjunction with (2) groundwater flow modeling to quantify the aquifer interaction, driven mainly by the multi-layer groundwater abstraction in the Bandung groundwater basin, and demonstrate their correspondence. In addition, we also use the model to quantify the impact of multi-layer groundwater abstraction on the spatial distribution of the groundwater level changes. New hydrological insights for the region: In response to the limited calibration data availability, we expand the typical model calibration that makes use of the groundwater level observations, with in-situ measurement and a novel qualitative approach using the collated environmental water tracers (EWT) data for the model evaluation. The analysis in the study area using EWT data and quantitative methods of numerical groundwater flow modeling is found to collaborate with each other. Both methods show agreement in their assessment of (1) the groundwater recharge spatial distribution, (2) the regional groundwater flow direction, (3) the groundwater age estimates, and (4) the identification of aquifer interaction. On average, the downwelling to the deeper aquifer is quantified at 0.110 m/year, which stands out as a significant component compared to other groundwater fluxes in the system. We also determine the unconfined aquifer storage volume decrease, calculated from the change in the groundwater table, resulting in an average declining rate of 51 Mm3/year. This number shows that the upper aquifer storage is dwindling at a rate disproportionate to its groundwater abstraction, hugely influenced by losses to the deeper aquifer. The outflow to the deeper aquifer contributes to 60.3% of the total groundwater storage lost, despite representing only 32.3% of the total groundwater abstraction. This study shows the possibility of quantification of aquifer interaction and groundwater level change dynamics driven by multi-layer groundwater abstraction in a multi-layer hydrogeological setting, even in a data-scarce environment. Applying such methods can assist in deriving basin-scale groundwater policies and management strategies under the changing anthropogenic and climatic factors, thereby ensuring sustainable groundwater management. |
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2214-5818 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Rusli2023101585 |
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222 |
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Ibrahim, A.S.; Zayed, I.S.A.; Abdelhaleem, F.S.; Afify, M.M.; Ahmed, A.; Abd-Elaty, I. |
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Identifying cost-effective locations of storage dams for rainfall harvesting and flash flood mitigation in arid and semi-arid regions |
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2023 |
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Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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50 |
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101526 |
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Flash flood, Morphometric parameters, GIS, Cost-effective, Wadi Tayyibah, Dams |
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Study region Wadi Tayyibah is located in south Sinai, Egypt, in a region called Abou Zenima, and it is used to develop this study. Study focus Flash floods tremendously impact many facets of human life due to their destructive consequences and the costs associated with mitigating efforts. This study aims to evaluate the harvesting of Runoff by delineating the watersheds using the Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 (HEC-1) model and ArcGIS software in trying to benefit from it in different ways. All morphometric parameters of the basin were considered, and the risk degree of the different sub-basins was determined. The suitable locations of dams were identified using a Geographical Information System (GIS) using the basin’s morphometric characteristics. New hydrological insights for the region The study proposed a total number of eight dams, including five dams that were recommended for sub-basin (1) and three dams in sub-basin (4), while sub-basins (2) and (3) are not suitable locations to build dams according to the contour map of Wadi Tayyibah. Results indicate that, based on the constructed flash flood hazard maps and the basin’s detailed morphometric characteristics, the best locations of dams are Dam (3) in sub-basin (1) and Dam (7) in sub-basin (4), where the runoff volume reached 3.13 million cubic meters (Mm3) and 5.56 Mm3 for return period 100, respectively. This study is useful for decision-makers and designers for using morphometric parameters and flash flood hazard degree maps to select dam locations. Also, the cost-benefit analysis for using the morphometric parameters is required to be investigated. |
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2214-5818 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Ibrahim2023101526 |
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238 |
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Zaeri, A.; Mohammadi, Z.; Rezanezhad, F. |
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Determining the source and mechanism of river salinity: An integrated regional study |
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Journal Article |
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2023 |
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Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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47 |
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101411 |
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River salinity, Salinization mechanism, Isotope, Halite brine, River sinuosity |
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Study region Zohreh River Basin, Southwest Iran Study focus The salinity of Zohreh River sharply increases in three salinity zones (SZs) along the river named SZ1, SZ2 (the focus of this study), and SZ3. Determining the salinity sources and salinization mechanism using an integrated approach including geological, hydrochemical, isotopic, geophysical, river sinuosity and hydrocarbon analysis are the main objectives of this study. The study focuses on the combination of evidence of regional-scale (i.e., river sinuosity and seismic data) and small-scale (i.e., drilling core analysis). New hydrologic insights for the region Among several known sources of river salinity, it was found that the water quality of the Zohreh River is mainly threatened by the salt-bearing Gachsaran Formation and oil-field brine. It is concluded that halite brine and oil-field brine simultaneously cause the salinization in SZ2, and their contributions were delineated to be 95% and 5%, respectively. The lack of reliable geological evidence to support halite dissolution in surficial layers by circulating waters suggests the possibility of a deep source of halite brine in SZ2. The results revealed that deep halite brine of the salt layers of Gachsaran Formation is mainly responsible for the salinization of SZ2. The mechanism of deep brine penetration to the river through the hidden fault failures detected by the combination of river sinuosity analysis and geophysical data for the first time. |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Zaeri2023101411 |
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251 |
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