Abstract: Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area.

Abstract: Study Region: Bandung groundwater basin, Indonesia. Study focus: Groundwater abstraction of various magnitudes, pumped out from numerous depths in a multitude of layers of aquifers, stimulates different changes in hydraulic head distribution, including ones under vertical cross-sections. This generates groundwater flow in the vertical direction, where groundwater flows within its storage from the shallow to the underlying confined aquifers. In the Bandung groundwater basin, previous studies have identified such processes, but quantitative evaluations have never been conducted, with data scarcity mainly standing as one of the major challenges. In this study, we utilize the collated (1) environmental water tracer data, including major ion elements (Na+/K+, Ca2＋, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−,HCO3−), stable isotope data (2H and δ18O), and groundwater age determination (14C), in conjunction with (2) groundwater flow modeling to quantify the aquifer interaction, driven mainly by the multi-layer groundwater abstraction in the Bandung groundwater basin, and demonstrate their correspondence. In addition, we also use the model to quantify the impact of multi-layer groundwater abstraction on the spatial distribution of the groundwater level changes. New hydrological insights for the region: In response to the limited calibration data availability, we expand the typical model calibration that makes use of the groundwater level observations, with in-situ measurement and a novel qualitative approach using the collated environmental water tracers (EWT) data for the model evaluation. The analysis in the study area using EWT data and quantitative methods of numerical groundwater flow modeling is found to collaborate with each other. Both methods show agreement in their assessment of (1) the groundwater recharge spatial distribution, (2) the regional groundwater flow direction, (3) the groundwater age estimates, and (4) the identification of aquifer interaction. On average, the downwelling to the deeper aquifer is quantified at 0.110 m/year, which stands out as a significant component compared to other groundwater fluxes in the system. We also determine the unconfined aquifer storage volume decrease, calculated from the change in the groundwater table, resulting in an average declining rate of 51 Mm3/year. This number shows that the upper aquifer storage is dwindling at a rate disproportionate to its groundwater abstraction, hugely influenced by losses to the deeper aquifer. The outflow to the deeper aquifer contributes to 60.3% of the total groundwater storage lost, despite representing only 32.3% of the total groundwater abstraction. This study shows the possibility of quantification of aquifer interaction and groundwater level change dynamics driven by multi-layer groundwater abstraction in a multi-layer hydrogeological setting, even in a data-scarce environment. Applying such methods can assist in deriving basin-scale groundwater policies and management strategies under the changing anthropogenic and climatic factors, thereby ensuring sustainable groundwater management.