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Pham, H.C.; Alila, Y. |
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Title  |
Science of forests and floods: The quantum leap forward needed, literally and metaphorically |
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Journal Article |
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2024 |
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Science of The Total Environment |
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912 |
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169646 |
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Hydrological causality, Extreme value analyses, Land use impact, Peakflows, Extreme events epistemology, Experimental design |
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Abstract |
A century of research has generated considerable disagreement on the effect of forests on floods. Here we call for a causal inference framework to advance the science and management of the effect of any forest or its removal on flood severity and frequency. The causes of floods are multiple and chancy and, hence, can only be investigated via a probabilistic approach. We use the stochastic hydrology literature to infer a blueprint framework which could guide future research on the understanding and prediction of the effects of forests on floods in environments where rain is the dominant form of precipitation. Drawing parallels from other disciplines, we show that the introduction of probability in forest hydrology could stimulate a gestalt switch in the science of forests and floods. In light of increasing flood risk caused by climate change, this probabilistic framework can help policymakers develop robust forest and water management plans based on a defensible and clear understanding of floods. |
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0048-9697 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Pham2024169646 |
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244 |
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Author |
Seidl, C.; Wheeler, S.A.; Page, D. |
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Title |
Understanding the global success criteria for managed aquifer recharge schemes |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2024 |
Publication |
Journal of Hydrology |
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628 |
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130469 |
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Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR), Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Water banking, Groundwater, Water management, Water storage |
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Water availability and quality issues will only gain importance in the future, with climate change impacts putting increasing pressure on global water resources. Dealing with these challenges requires drawing on all available water management tools, including Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR). Although MAR has seen increasing global implementation during the last half a century, it is still often overlooked as a management tool. While technical, bio-physical, and hydrogeological aspects of MAR are well researched, this cannot be said for socio-economic and other governance factors. Where information is available, this study seeks to understand the conditions necessary for MAR success. We apply fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis on 313 world MAR applications, and also model separately for high- and low-middle-income countries. Results show that sophisticated hydrogeological site understanding and scheme operation is paramount for MAR success, as is utilizing natural water sources for high value end uses. Successful high-income country MAR schemes tend to be large and utilize natural water sources and sophisticated water injection and treatment methods to augment potable water supply; while successful low-middle-income country schemes are not large, older than 20 years, and use gravity infiltration methods and (limited) no water treatment. These findings will help inform the future suitability of MAR application design and its likely success within various contexts. |
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0022-1694 |
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THL @ christoph.kuells @ Seidl2024130469 |
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273 |
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