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Tziritis, E., Aschonitis, V., Balacco, G., Daras, P., Doulgeris, C., Fidelibus, M. D., et al. (2020). MEDSAL Project-Salinization of critical groundwater reserves in coastal Mediterranean areas: Identification, risk assessment and sustainable management with the use of integrated modelling and smart ICT tools. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (2326).
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Adar, E. M., & Külls, C. (2002). MCM sf–Mixing-cell model for a steady flow MIG–Mixing-cell input generator: A short manual for installation and operation of MCM sf using the MIG–mixing-cell input generator.
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Constantinou, C., & Udluft, P. (2000). Mapping the availability and dynamics of groundwater recharge. Part 2: Case studies from Mediterranean Basins. In Proceedings of Third Congress on Regional Geological Cartography and Information Systems (pp. 163–168).
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Udluft, P., & Külls, C. (2000). Mapping the availability and dynamics of groundwater recharge. Part 1: modelling techniques. In Proceedings of the Third Congress on Regional Geological Cartography and Information Systems (pp. 337–340).
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Bresinsky, L., Kordilla, J., Hector, T., Engelhardt, I., Livshitz, Y., & Sauter, M. (2023). Managing climate change impacts on the Western Mountain Aquifer: Implications for Mediterranean karst groundwater resources. Journal of Hydrology X, 20, 100153.
Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.
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