Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.

Abstract: Study Region: Bandung groundwater basin, Indonesia. Study focus: Groundwater abstraction of various magnitudes, pumped out from numerous depths in a multitude of layers of aquifers, stimulates different changes in hydraulic head distribution, including ones under vertical cross-sections. This generates groundwater flow in the vertical direction, where groundwater flows within its storage from the shallow to the underlying confined aquifers. In the Bandung groundwater basin, previous studies have identified such processes, but quantitative evaluations have never been conducted, with data scarcity mainly standing as one of the major challenges. In this study, we utilize the collated (1) environmental water tracer data, including major ion elements (Na+/K+, Ca2＋, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−,HCO3−), stable isotope data (2H and δ18O), and groundwater age determination (14C), in conjunction with (2) groundwater flow modeling to quantify the aquifer interaction, driven mainly by the multi-layer groundwater abstraction in the Bandung groundwater basin, and demonstrate their correspondence. In addition, we also use the model to quantify the impact of multi-layer groundwater abstraction on the spatial distribution of the groundwater level changes. New hydrological insights for the region: In response to the limited calibration data availability, we expand the typical model calibration that makes use of the groundwater level observations, with in-situ measurement and a novel qualitative approach using the collated environmental water tracers (EWT) data for the model evaluation. The analysis in the study area using EWT data and quantitative methods of numerical groundwater flow modeling is found to collaborate with each other. Both methods show agreement in their assessment of (1) the groundwater recharge spatial distribution, (2) the regional groundwater flow direction, (3) the groundwater age estimates, and (4) the identification of aquifer interaction. On average, the downwelling to the deeper aquifer is quantified at 0.110 m/year, which stands out as a significant component compared to other groundwater fluxes in the system. We also determine the unconfined aquifer storage volume decrease, calculated from the change in the groundwater table, resulting in an average declining rate of 51 Mm3/year. This number shows that the upper aquifer storage is dwindling at a rate disproportionate to its groundwater abstraction, hugely influenced by losses to the deeper aquifer. The outflow to the deeper aquifer contributes to 60.3% of the total groundwater storage lost, despite representing only 32.3% of the total groundwater abstraction. This study shows the possibility of quantification of aquifer interaction and groundwater level change dynamics driven by multi-layer groundwater abstraction in a multi-layer hydrogeological setting, even in a data-scarce environment. Applying such methods can assist in deriving basin-scale groundwater policies and management strategies under the changing anthropogenic and climatic factors, thereby ensuring sustainable groundwater management.

Abstract: Study region Zohreh River Basin, Southwest Iran Study focus The salinity of Zohreh River sharply increases in three salinity zones (SZs) along the river named SZ1, SZ2 (the focus of this study), and SZ3. Determining the salinity sources and salinization mechanism using an integrated approach including geological, hydrochemical, isotopic, geophysical, river sinuosity and hydrocarbon analysis are the main objectives of this study. The study focuses on the combination of evidence of regional-scale (i.e., river sinuosity and seismic data) and small-scale (i.e., drilling core analysis). New hydrologic insights for the region Among several known sources of river salinity, it was found that the water quality of the Zohreh River is mainly threatened by the salt-bearing Gachsaran Formation and oil-field brine. It is concluded that halite brine and oil-field brine simultaneously cause the salinization in SZ2, and their contributions were delineated to be 95% and 5%, respectively. The lack of reliable geological evidence to support halite dissolution in surficial layers by circulating waters suggests the possibility of a deep source of halite brine in SZ2. The results revealed that deep halite brine of the salt layers of Gachsaran Formation is mainly responsible for the salinization of SZ2. The mechanism of deep brine penetration to the river through the hidden fault failures detected by the combination of river sinuosity analysis and geophysical data for the first time.

Abstract: Study region Africa, Latin America, Europe. Study focus Through the extensive study and mapping of the world’s aquifers that lie astride the international boundary lines of sovereign States, ISARM has awakened concerned States to the existence of aquifers stretching beyond their borders, and precipitated cooperation in generating a body of knowledge that facilitated cooperation in governance arrangements for such aquifers. In parallel, ISARM influenced the shape and direction of the United Nations “Draft articles on the law of transboundary aquifers” appended to UN Resolution 63/124 of 2008. Both stimulated cooperation among concerned States, and provided a frame of reference for the legal grounding of such cooperation in aquifer-specific agreements. New hydrological insights Through this synergistic paradigm, ISARM has made an impact on the shape and direction of cooperation in the Guaraní Aquifer in South America, and in the Iullemeden and Taoudeni/Tanezrouft Aquifer Systems (ITAS) in the Sahel region of Africa. It is having an influence on the shape and direction of cooperation being negotiated on the Stampriet Aquifer System in Southern Africa, and on the Ocotepeque-Citalá Aquifer in Central America. The link of ISARM to other international aquifer agreements on record is tenuous, and ISARM’s influence on their generation speculative. The visibility of ISARM has faded since 2012, however its legacy is lasting.

Abstract: Leaky dams are an increasingly popular natural flood management measure, yet their impacts on flood peak magnitude have not yet been empirically quantified for a range of event types and magnitudes, even at the stream scale. In this study, the novel application of a transfer function noise modelling approach to empirical Before-After-Control-Impact stage data from an upland catchment allowed leaky dam effectiveness in reducing flood peak magnitude to be quantified. Flood peak stage and discharge magnitude changes were assessed from empirical data for 50 single and multi-peaked high flow events with return periods ranging from less than one year to six years. Overall, event peak magnitude was significantly reduced following the installation of eight leaky dams on the impact stream. Effectiveness was highly variable, but on average, flood peak magnitude was reduced by 10% for events with a return period up to one year. Some of the variability was explained by the size of the event and whether it was a single or multi-peaked event. This finding emphasises the need to manage expectations by considering both a range of event magnitudes and types when designing or assessing leaky dam natural flood management schemes.