Abstract: With its arid and semi-arid climate, Iran claims about one-third of the world’s average annual precipitation. Accordingly, the present study investigated whether an effective water resources management (WRM) strategy (both groundwater and reservoir resources) could reduce groundwater drawdown while simultaneously providing secure enough water for preservation of agricultural activities and rural settlements. For this purpose, a comprehensive system dynamics (SD) model incorporating reservoir, surface-water, and groundwater resources was developed. Then, the model was implemented for the Nesa plain in Bam County, Iran, as an example. In this plain, the construction of a dam to supply drinking water to the cities of Bam and the Bam Industrial Zone had devastated the environment and human communities in the downstream areas, leading to the depopulation of as many as 104 villages in the Bam region. The results of the SD model revealed that the artificial recharge of the plain groundwater aquifer along with the management of the operation of the wells and increasing productivity would be very effective. In order to estimate future precipitation data, the SDSM statistical exponential microscale model was used to microscale the large CanESM2 scale model under two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The continuation of the current trend of the groundwater resources in the plain during the next 20 years will also cause a drop in water level of 8.3 m compared with the existing situation and a reduction of 41 m compared with the long-term average of 1980. Based on this modeling effort, upon releasing 60% of river flow, surplus to downstream demand, for recharging aquifer through artificial recharge projects, the rate of water table fall will decline significantly over a 20-year period and the amount of negative aquifer water balance would most likely improve from 65.5 to 35.17 million cubic meters annually.

Abstract: Travel time distributions (TTDs) provide an effective way to describe the transport and mixing processes of water parcels in a subsurface hydrological system. A major challenge in characterizing catchment TTD is quantifying the travel times in deep groundwater and its contribution to the streamflow TTD. Here, we develop and test a novel modeling framework for an integrated assessment of catchment scale TTDs through explicit representation of 3D-groundwater dynamics. The proposed framework is based on the linkage between a flux tracking scheme with the surface hydrologic model (mHM) for the soil-water compartment and a particle tracking scheme with the 3D-groundwater model OpenGeoSys (OGS) for the groundwater compartment. This linkage provides us with the ability to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of TTDs in these different hydrological compartments from grid scale to regional scale. We apply this framework in the Nägelstedt catchment in central Germany. Simulation results reveal that both shape and scale of grid-scale groundwater TTDs are spatially heterogeneous, which are strongly dependent on the topography and aquifer structure. The component-wise analysis of catchment TTD shows a time-dependent sensitivity of transport processes in soil zone and groundwater to driving meteorological forcing. Catchment TTD exhibits a power-law shape and fractal behavior. The predictive uncertainty in catchment mean travel time is dominated by the uncertainty in the deep groundwater rather than that in the soil zone. Catchment mean travel time is severely biased by a marginal error in groundwater characterization. Accordingly, we recommend to use multiple summary statistics to minimize the predictive uncertainty introduced by the tailing behavior of catchment TTD.

Abstract: Apart from some notable exceptions, the sound governance of transboundary aquifers (coupled or uncoupled to rivers) is seriously lacking in most regions of the world, despite a highly successful 20-year ISARM initiative. The distinction between regions of water abundance (as in the Haute Savoie–Geneva aquifers) and those of water scarcity (\textless1000 m3/an/capita), as in the Rum-Saq aquifer, ought to be a driver for the urgency in adopting sound governance. In the latter regions, however, such an urgent response faces too many hurdles (institutional, financial, and weak capacity). Climate change, one of the global megatrends (among demography, economic shift, resources stress, urbanization, and novel viruses such as COVID-19), will exacerbate the problem in the coming decade and beyond. This chapter provides an critical perspective on the status of this subsurface asset in 570 or so, domestic and transboundary aquifers of the world (self-identified by country experts), while taking full account of their interconnections, or not, with surface waters. This critical perspective will be grounded in two important factors, first the hiatus in adoption by countries of the evolving international water law and guidance on transboundary aquifers (the Draft Articles, which provide legal pathways for collaboration or eventually dispute resolution), and second the framework of the sustainable development goals (SDG) 6 (clean water and sanitation), which countries have committed themselves to with reference to transboundary waters. The critical perspective finds that despite the lack of momentum in adopting formal global norms, sporadic cooperation and collaboration is continuing and is well received, when delivered methodically through the support of international agencies. The findings of the critical perspective are that even if water-related SDGs will have been achieved across the world, it would contribute precious little to meaningful enhancement of governance of transboundary aquifers, unless they have been explicitly addressed in terms that are tangible to decision makers, such as the impact of disregarding them on the current or future national GDP. The onset of a “new socioeconomic normal” in the aftermath of COVID-19 could further defer meaningful progress, taking the example of Latin America, where a 5% decline has been forecast for 2020. With such declines in the finances of governments, attention to shared aquifer resources may well decline even further. Urgent wise reaction to this possibility must be a priority for the professional science-policy community.