Abstract: Results of the CRAFT Project EVK4 CT-2001-30004

Abstract: Demonstration des Potentials der Nitrat-Isotopenanalytik für die Strategieentwicklung der Sanierung Nitrat-belasteter Brunnen

Abstract: This synthesis on groundwater recharge targets the Southern African region as a result of the dependence of the community and economic sector on the groundwater resource. Several literature based recharge studies were collected and assessed in order to find out the main controls to the occurrence of recharge. The Water Table Fluctuation and Base flow separation methods have been tested in the catchment that drains crystalline basement rocks and dolostones close to the city of Johannesburg, South Africa. Based on the assessed data the Chloride Mass Balance method resulted in groundwater recharge of less than 4% of the rainfall, while it reaches 20%, when rainfall exceeds 600mm. For the classical water balance method, recharge proportion is less than 3% of rainfall as a result of very high ambient temperature in the region. Based on the Saturated Volume Fluctuation and Water Table Fluctuation methods, recharge could be less than 6% for annual rainfall of less than 600mm. Observational results further suggest that sporadic recharge from high intensity rainfall has important contribution to the groundwater recharge in the region, owing to the presence of permeable geological cover, which could not be fully captured by most of the recharge estimation methods. This study further documents an evaluation of the most reliable recharge estimation methods in the area such as the chloride mass balance, saturated volume fluctuation and water table fluctuation methods in order to successfully manage the groundwater resource.

Abstract: The crucial role which groundwater resource plays in our environment and the overall well-being of all living things can not be underestimated. Nonetheless, mismanagement of resources, over-exploitation, inadequate supply of surface water and pollution have led to severe drought and an overall drop in groundwater resources’ levels over the past decades. To address this, a groundwater flow model and several mathematical data-driven models have been developed for forecasting groundwater levels. However, there is a problem of unavailability and scarcity of the on-site input data needed by the data-driven models to forecast the groundwater level. Furthermore, as a result of the dynamics and stochastic characteristics of groundwater, there is a need for an appropriate, accurate and reliable forecasting model to solve these challenges. Over the years, the broad application of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models are gaining attraction as an alternative solution for forecasting groundwater levels. Against this background, this article provides an overview of forecasting methods for predicting groundwater levels. Also, this article uses ML models such as Regressions Models, Deep Auto-Regressive models, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks with External Input (NARX) to forecast groundwater levels using the groundwater region 10 at Karst belt in South Africa as a case study. This was done using Python Mx. Version 1.9.1., and MATLAB R2022a machine learning toolboxes. Moreover, the Coefficient of Determination (R2);, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mutual Information gain, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)) models were the forecasting statistical performance metrics used to assess the predictive performance of these models. The results obtained showed that NARX and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have higher performance metrics and accuracy compared to other models used in this study.