Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.

Abstract: In 2003 examination of aerial photographs revealed a series of previously unknown relict shorelines on the arcuate ridge, possibly a clay lunette dune, that marks the western boundary of Etosha Pan in Namibia. The shorelines are 120–600m wide and the most prominent extend for tens of km around the lunette dune. The shorelines were examined on the ground in 2004 and an attempt was made to date the three lowest levels at ca. 5, 2.5 and 1m above the present pan surface. The OSL ages obtained indicate higher and more prolonged lake conditions than today at ca. 6.4, 4.0 and 2.1ka with the youngest shoreline sediments resting on an ancient pan surface dating to ca. 13ka. The evidence indicates dry conditions in the pan at ca. 13ka, wetter conditions and higher lake levels in the middle Holocene followed by a decline in lake levels to the present. Periods of inundation were of sufficient duration to produce shorelines at the southwestern end of the pan due to the prevailing northeasterly winds that would have maximized wave action along this section of the pan margin. The Etosha findings, together with other regional paleoclimate data, suggest four periods of increased wetness in SW Africa during the Holocene at 7–5, 4.5–3.5, 2.5–1.7 and ca. 1.0ka. There is widespread evidence for the oldest of these periods suggesting that it was a prominent and widespread interval of wetness. Prior to ca. 8.0ka the climate may have been drier than today.

Abstract: Study region Africa, Latin America, Europe. Study focus Through the extensive study and mapping of the world’s aquifers that lie astride the international boundary lines of sovereign States, ISARM has awakened concerned States to the existence of aquifers stretching beyond their borders, and precipitated cooperation in generating a body of knowledge that facilitated cooperation in governance arrangements for such aquifers. In parallel, ISARM influenced the shape and direction of the United Nations “Draft articles on the law of transboundary aquifers” appended to UN Resolution 63/124 of 2008. Both stimulated cooperation among concerned States, and provided a frame of reference for the legal grounding of such cooperation in aquifer-specific agreements. New hydrological insights Through this synergistic paradigm, ISARM has made an impact on the shape and direction of cooperation in the Guaraní Aquifer in South America, and in the Iullemeden and Taoudeni/Tanezrouft Aquifer Systems (ITAS) in the Sahel region of Africa. It is having an influence on the shape and direction of cooperation being negotiated on the Stampriet Aquifer System in Southern Africa, and on the Ocotepeque-Citalá Aquifer in Central America. The link of ISARM to other international aquifer agreements on record is tenuous, and ISARM’s influence on their generation speculative. The visibility of ISARM has faded since 2012, however its legacy is lasting.