Abstract: Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area.

Abstract: Mitigation of localized pluvial flooding is one of the major resiliency goals in urban environments, and Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) has the potential to deliver such an outcome. However, there is a lack of systematic approaches to prioritize investment in different candidate areas. This study provides a framework to identify vulnerable stormwater drainage inlets and their contributing areas, prioritize them, identify dominant factors in their selection, assess the potential of GSI in mitigating their overflows, and compare the impact and its cost to gray infrastructure upgrade alternatives. Using SWMM 5.1.013, decision trees, and a volumetric-based assessment of GSI overflow capture, we applied the framework to the City of Dallas, Texas, for three design storms with three GSI practices— bioretention cells, raingardens, and rainwater harvesting tanks. Results showed that there was a significant increase in the number of overflowing stormwater drainage inlets, referred to as hotspots, and their contributing subwatersheds, referred to as opportunity areas, with more intense storms especially in problematic watersheds. Also, prioritization results provided a series of maps to rank the opportunity areas based on overflow severity, recurrence of the overflows, and GSI availability. Moreover, classification results showed that inlet features, especially the inlet depth, were the dominant factors in the identification of the non-problematic inlets. Finally, the GSI impact assessment showed substantial overflow mitigation even at the “very high” severity levels when GSI is comprehensively deployed across opportunity areas. Despite gray infrastructure upgrades yielding higher reduction levels, their cost per cubic meter was higher than GSI. Therefore, a combination of GSI and gray results in maximum overflow reduction at a lower cost compared to common practices.

Abstract: This study combines historical records of 14C and 3H in the atmosphere and soil with renewal rate and groundwater lumped parameter models to predict the abundance of 14C and 3H in groundwater over time. 624 groundwater samples from numerous studies, over four decades (1978–2019), in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique were collated to compare with predicted groundwater activities of 14C and 3H within the South African Development Community (SADC) region. Spatial datasets of carbonate bearing lithology, C3/C4 vegetation, summer/winter rainfall and coastal proximity were used to apply corrections to 14C and 3H data. Corrected values of 14C and 3H were compared with the theoretical abundance of these tracers, derived from the lumped parameter models, to estimate the general mean residence times and presence of groundwater mixing between modern recharge and older groundwaters. This study found that corrected values produced varying mean residence times derived from 14C ages (∼500–28500 years) and a wide range of potentially mixed waters within each aquifer system (0–100 % of tested wells) across the study area. The largest proportions of mixed groundwater, as well as the youngest mean residence times, were found in alluvial and primary fractured rock aquifers (e.g., western coast of South Africa and southern Mozambique). The smallest proportions of mixed groundwater were predicted in deep confined clay-rich aquifers as well as layered coal bearing carbonate sequences (e.g., Orapa, Malwewe and Serowe, Botswana). Insights into the proportions of mixed groundwater and mean residence times can help assess hydrological resilience on a regional scale. Such information is pertinent in promoting socio-economic development and increased water/food security in the SADC region. By understanding the resilience of groundwater resources, robust and informed strategies for water equality and GDP growth in the SADC region can be envisioned and implemented.

Abstract: Qanat is a passive (unpumped) horizontal well (or a slant well with a very mild inclined angle) that is capable of extracting water from aquifers by gravity. Many qanats are constructed along the radius of the alluvial fan wedge-shaped aquifers. Analytical modeling of such a qanat-aquifer system provides great benefit for quickly screening different designs of qanats and accessing the performance of qanat discharge in the field. The previous analytical modeling of discharge of qanats, however, did not consider the wedge-shaped aquifers. Thus, the goal of this research is to obtain semi-analytical solutions of discharge variations of qanats in alluvial fan aquifers with nearby pumping wells, subjected to areal recharges due to rainfall. The uniform head boundary is considered inside the qanat (because of its enormous permeability in respect to the background aquifer). The influences of the aquifer lateral boundaries on discharge of qanat and its sensitivity to hydraulic and geometric parameters are explored. The influences of the lateral boundaries on the discharge of qanat due to areal recharge and nearby pumping wells discharge are also explored. The results of this study can be utilized for multiple purposes: 1) to predict the discharge of qanat in an alluvial fan aquifer and explore the influences of the areal recharge and nearby pumping well discharge; 2) to estimate the hydraulic parameters of the alluvial fan aquifer depleted by a qanat; 3) to determine the location of the nearby pumping well to minimize its influences on the discharge of a qanat; 4) to calculate the water budgets of aquifers depleted by qanats and pumping wells and replenished by areal recharge among other applications. This paper is an extension to the work presented by Sedghi and Zhan (2020) (which concerns an infinite unconfined aquifer) for an unconfined alluvial fan aquifer setting.

Abstract: The concentration of the bioavailable uranium fraction (Ubio) at the European scale was deduced by geochemical modelling considering several definitions found in the literature and the FOREGS European stream waters geochemical atlas dataset to produce a Ubio baseline. A sensitivity analysis was performed using three thermodynamic databases. We also investigated the link between total dissolved uranium (Uaq) concentrations, speciation and global stream water chemistry on the one hand, and the lithology and ages of the surrounding rocks on the other. The more U-enriched the stream sediments or rock type contexts are, which tends to be the case with rocks containing silicates (4.1 mg/kg), the less U-concentrated the stream waters are (0.15 μg/L). Sedimentary rocks lead to slightly higher Uaq concentrations (0.34 μg/L) even if the concentration in sediment (Used) is relatively low (1.6 mg/kg). This trend is reversed for Ubio, with higher concentrations in a crystalline context. The mean estimated Ubio value ranges from 1.5.10−3 to 65.3 ng/L and can fluctuate by 3 orders of magnitude depending on the considered definition as opposed to by 2 orders of magnitude accountable to differences between thermodynamic databases. The classification of the water in relation to the two surrounding rock lithologies makes it possible to reduce the mean variability for the Ubio concentrations. Irrespective of the definition of Ubio considered, in 59% of cases the Ubio fraction represents less than 1% of Uaq. Several threshold values relating to Ubio were proposed, assuming knowledge only of the aqueous concentrations of the major elements and Uaq.