Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.

Abstract: The site of Udhruh is located in the arid desert of southern Jordan, about 15 km to the east of Petra. The site was built by the Nabataeans but expanded by the Romans (as a defensive site) and was continuously occupied until the Early Islamic period. It receives less than the 200 mm of annual precipitation, which is crucial for agricultural cultivation. Archaeological evidence from earlier excavations together with new data from several survey projects indicate that areas around Udhruh were cultivated throughout the Roman, Byzantine, and Early Islamic periods (300 BCE–800 CE). The fundamental question is: how did the people of Udhruh sustain their community in the desert, and how did they transform the desert into arable land? The landscape could be utilised thanks to sophisticated water management and irrigation techniques. At least four underground qanat systems were identified providing Udhruh with access to groundwater. At the terminal end of the qanat systems, several types of closed surface channels conveyed the water to reservoirs, which subsequently distributed the water to the field systems. The water systems of Udhruh differ from the well-known Nabataean systems in the surrounding area. As Udhruh was taken over by the Roman army in 106 CE, this study analyses how the Nabataean water systems continued to function and adapt through the Roman and Byzantine periods. A complete understanding of Udhruh’s water systems helps to reconstruct past land use, agricultural activity, and irrigation practices in a currently arid region.

Abstract: The migration process of leached uranium in the in-situ leaching of uranium is considered a typical reactive transport problem. During this process, the lixiviant concentration and injection rate are important in-situ leaching process parameters (ISLPP) to efficiently recover uranium. However, several uncertain factors affect the outcomes of the ISLPP design. In addition, the repeated use of the reactive transport model (RTM) for investigating the acid in-situ leaching of uranium with the application of the Monte Carlo method leads to a substantial computational load. For this reason, a machine learning (ML)–based surrogate model was developed with the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) method to replace the RTM under the condition of uncertain parameters. Moreover, the simulated annealing optimisation model for ISLPP was created based on the proposed surrogate model. The optimal ISLPP was achieved that generated maximum profits from uranium recovery under different lixiviant prices, uranium prices and exploitation times. The optimal design framework of ISLPP based on the proposed ML algorithm was then applied in the Bayan-Uul sandstone-type uranium deposit in Inner Mongolia, China. From our analysis, it was demonstrated that the ML-based surrogate model exhibited great fitness with the RTM. The optimal results of the ISLPP indicated that the lixiviant concentration and injection rate could be adjusted based on the fluctuations in lixiviant price, uranium price and exploitation time. If the prices of sulphuric acid were high, a specific concentration of hydrogen peroxide could be injected into the injection well to promote the oxidation and dissolution of the uranium ore to increase the income from the uranium recovery. The optimisation model can also use the ISLPP scheme to boost the revenues from different lixiviant prices, uranium prices and exploitation times under the uncertainty of porosity, illustrating the applicability of the ML-based optimal design method of ISLPP in ISL mining. A general framework for developing surrogate models, as well as for conducting uncertainty analyses for a wide range of groundwater models was proposed here yielding valuable insights.