Abstract: Paleohydrological data from the African tropics and subtropics, including lake, groundwater and speleothem records, are reviewed to show how environments and climates from both hemispheres are inter-related. Although orbitally induced changes in the monsoon strength account for a large part of long-term climatic changes in tropical Africa, the Late Pleistocene–Holocene hydrological fluctuations rather appear to have been a series of abrupt events that reflect complex interactions between orbital forcing, atmosphere, ocean and land surface conditions. During the Last Glacial Maximum (23–18ka BP), most records indicate that generally dry conditions have prevailed in both hemispheres, associated with lower tropical land- and sea-surface temperatures. This agrees with simulations using coupled ocean–atmosphere models, which predict cooling and reduced summer precipitation in tropical Africa; the global hydrological cycle was weaker than today when the extent of large polar ice-sheets and sea-ice was a prominent forcing factor of the Earth’s climate. Glacial-interglacial climatic changes started early: a first wetting/warming phase at ca. 17–16ka BP took place during a period of rapid temperature increase in Antarctica. Next, two drastic arid-humid transitions in equatorial and northern Africa occurred around 15–14.5ka BP and 11.5–11ka BP. Both are thought to match the major Greenland warming events, in concert with the switching of the oceanic thermohaline circulation to modern mode. However, part of the climatic signal after 15 ka BP also seems related to the Antarctica climate. During the Holocene, Africa has also experienced rapid hydrological fluctuations of dramatic magnitude compared to the climatic changes at high latitudes. In particular, major dry spells occurred around 8.4–8ka and 4.2–4ka BP in the northern monsoon domain. Comparison with other parts of the world indicates that these events have a worldwide distribution but different regional expressions. In the absence of large polar ice sheets, changes in the continental hydrological cycles in the tropics may have a significant impact on the global climate system. Climate information gathered here allows to identify geographical and methodological gaps, and raise some scientific questions that remain to be solved to better understand how the tropics respond to changes in major climate-forcing factors, and how they influence climate globally.

Abstract: Study region Transboundary aquifers (TBAs) of Africa. Study focus Review of work on TBAs in Africa, including an overview of assessments and management efforts that have taken place over the last half century. New hydrological insights Seventy-two TBAs have been mapped in Africa. They underlie 40% of the continent, where 33% of the population lives, often in arid or semi-arid regions. TBA inventories have progressed since 2000 and remain work in progress. Despite their importance only eleven TBAs have been subjected to more detailed studies. Cooperation has been formalised for seven TBAs. Most of these TBAs are in North Africa and the Sahel. The recent global Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme compiled information at the national level to describe TBAs in terms of key indicators related to the water resource, socio-economic, and legal and institutional conditions. Availability of data at national level is low, hampering regional assessment. Comparing indicators, from questionnaire surveys, with those from a global water-use model showed variable levels of agreement, calling for further research. Reports on agreements scoping TBA management, indicate that this may be dealt with within international river/lake agreements, but reported inconsistencies between TBA sharing countries also indicate that implementation is limited. Increasing awareness and support to joint TBA management is noticeable amongst international organisations. However, such cooperation requires long-term commitment to produce impacts at the local level.

Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.