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Pham, H. C., & Alila, Y. (2024). Science of forests and floods: The quantum leap forward needed, literally and metaphorically. Science of The Total Environment, 912, 169646.
Abstract: A century of research has generated considerable disagreement on the effect of forests on floods. Here we call for a causal inference framework to advance the science and management of the effect of any forest or its removal on flood severity and frequency. The causes of floods are multiple and chancy and, hence, can only be investigated via a probabilistic approach. We use the stochastic hydrology literature to infer a blueprint framework which could guide future research on the understanding and prediction of the effects of forests on floods in environments where rain is the dominant form of precipitation. Drawing parallels from other disciplines, we show that the introduction of probability in forest hydrology could stimulate a gestalt switch in the science of forests and floods. In light of increasing flood risk caused by climate change, this probabilistic framework can help policymakers develop robust forest and water management plans based on a defensible and clear understanding of floods.
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Johnson, R. S. H., & Alila, Y. (2023). Nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach: Investigating forest harvesting effects on floods in two large, nested, and snow-dominated watersheds in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Hydrology, 625, 129970.
Abstract: Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area.
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Pavelic, P., Srisuk, K., Saraphirom, P., Nadee, S., Pholkern, K., Chusanathas, S., et al. (2012). Balancing-out floods and droughts: Opportunities to utilize floodwater harvesting and groundwater storage for agricultural development in Thailand. Journal of Hydrology, 470-471, 55–64.
Abstract: Summary Thailand’s naturally high seasonal endowment of water resources brings with it the regularly experienced problems associated with floods during the wet season and droughts during the dry season. Downstream-focused engineering solutions that address flooding are vital, but do not necessarily capture the potential for basin-scale improvements to water security, food production and livelihood enhancement. Managed aquifer recharge, typically applied to annual harvesting of wet season flows in dry climates, can also be applied to capture, store and recover episodic extreme flood events in humid environments. In the Chao Phraya River Basin it is estimated that surplus flows recorded downstream above a critical threshold could be harvested and recharged within the shallow alluvial aquifers in a distributed manner upstream of flood prone areas without significantly impacting existing large-medium storages or the Gulf and deltaic ecosystems. Capturing peak flows approximately 1year in four by dedicating around 200km2 of land to groundwater recharge would reduce the magnitude of flooding and socio-economic impacts and generate around USD 250M/year in export earnings for smallholder rainfed farmers through dry season cash cropping without unduly compromising the demands of existing water users. It is proposed that farmers in upstream riparian zones be co-opted as flood harvesters and thus contribute to improved floodwater management through simple water management technologies that enable agricultural lands to be put to higher productive use. Local-scale site suitability and technical performance assessments along with revised governance structures would be required. It is expected that such an approach would also be applicable to other coastal-discharging basins in Thailand and potentially throughout the Asia region.
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Shams, A. (2014). A rediscovered-new ‘Qanat’ system in the High Mountains of Sinai Peninsula, with Levantine reflections. Journal of Arid Environments, 110, 69–74.
Abstract: Since the Achaemenid Empire in 532–332 BCE, the ‘Qanat’ became the central irrigation system in the arid and semi-arid lands. Several terms are used for ‘Qanat’ in different regions, including the Karez, Qanat, Falaj type Daudi, Qanat Romani, Fuqara (Foggara), or Khettara as known in Central Asia, Persia, Southeast Arabia, Levant, North Africa, or Morocco respectively. Typically, the ground, spring or surface water (i.e. seasonal floods or river-fed) sources feed similar irrigation system. Based on thirteen years of extensive survey and analysis work (i.e. Sinai Peninsula Research 2000–2013 CE), this paper presents a rediscovered-new Qanat system in the High Mountains of Sinai Peninsula (i.e. UNESCO World Heritage Site ‘WHS’ no. 954) under chronological open question with Levantine reflections. In 1970s CE, the present Sinaitic site of Farsh Abu A’lwan or the anciently known Farsh Shamma’a was archaeologically surveyed without a direct reference to the Qanat system in-situ. Scientifically, it is an argumentative and unique Qanat system in terms of chronology, location (region), site (local-setting), water source, size and household utility. It is the only discovered ‘Qanat’ across the Sinai, connecting the Near East and North Africa.
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Kharazi, P., khazaeli, E. A., & Heshmatpour, A. (2021). Delineation of suitable sites for groundwater dams in the semi-arid environment in the northeast of Iran using GIS-based decision-making method. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 15, 100657.
Abstract: Competing commercial demands on water resources need to be balanced as the world’s population rises. Generally, groundwater is raised by subsurface dams. In this paper, the geographic information system (GIS) software and a decision-making method were applied. As the first step, the limitations that affect the establishment of the subsurface dam were identified using eliminating criteria by the Boolean logic. Regarding the second step, the most appropriate axis was determined for subsurface dam construction in each of the limits. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was applied according to the evaluation criteria in this study. The aim of using AHP was to weigh and prioritize the criteria of the groundwater dam for recognizing appropriate sites. Among various places and regarding the subsurface dam construction, AHP was conducted using a hierarchy process for finding the most suitable sites in the third stage of the decision-making method. Finally, among the ten appropriate sites, cross comparison was drawn by using Decision Expert (DEX), Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS), and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Compared together (as a process of decision-making), DEX, TOPSIS, and EDAS methods assisted in ranking the most appropriate sites in the final step of subsurface dam pre-selection. A and C axes obtained scores between 1 and 2, among 10 axes according to the numerically ranked locations. Regarding the water shortage issue and better management of the underground water at certain levels, the findings of this study could be useful for the residents of Kajbid-Balaqly Watershed in the dry season. Further, water managers can use the above-mentioned methods for their decisions regarding the proper subsurface dam establishment.
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