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Rooyen, J. D. van, Watson, A. W., & Miller, J. A. (2022). Using tritium and radiocarbon activities to constrain regional modern and fossil groundwater mixing in Southern Africa. Journal of Hydrology, 614, 128570.
Abstract: This study combines historical records of 14C and 3H in the atmosphere and soil with renewal rate and groundwater lumped parameter models to predict the abundance of 14C and 3H in groundwater over time. 624 groundwater samples from numerous studies, over four decades (1978–2019), in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique were collated to compare with predicted groundwater activities of 14C and 3H within the South African Development Community (SADC) region. Spatial datasets of carbonate bearing lithology, C3/C4 vegetation, summer/winter rainfall and coastal proximity were used to apply corrections to 14C and 3H data. Corrected values of 14C and 3H were compared with the theoretical abundance of these tracers, derived from the lumped parameter models, to estimate the general mean residence times and presence of groundwater mixing between modern recharge and older groundwaters. This study found that corrected values produced varying mean residence times derived from 14C ages (∼500–28500 years) and a wide range of potentially mixed waters within each aquifer system (0–100 % of tested wells) across the study area. The largest proportions of mixed groundwater, as well as the youngest mean residence times, were found in alluvial and primary fractured rock aquifers (e.g., western coast of South Africa and southern Mozambique). The smallest proportions of mixed groundwater were predicted in deep confined clay-rich aquifers as well as layered coal bearing carbonate sequences (e.g., Orapa, Malwewe and Serowe, Botswana). Insights into the proportions of mixed groundwater and mean residence times can help assess hydrological resilience on a regional scale. Such information is pertinent in promoting socio-economic development and increased water/food security in the SADC region. By understanding the resilience of groundwater resources, robust and informed strategies for water equality and GDP growth in the SADC region can be envisioned and implemented.
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Johnson, R. S. H., & Alila, Y. (2023). Nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach: Investigating forest harvesting effects on floods in two large, nested, and snow-dominated watersheds in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Hydrology, 625, 129970.
Abstract: Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area.
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Ollivier, C. C., Carrière, S. D., Heath, T., Olioso, A., Rabefitia, Z., Rakoto, H., et al. (2023). Ensemble precipitation estimates based on an assessment of 21 gridded precipitation datasets to improve precipitation estimations across Madagascar. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 47, 101400.
Abstract: Study region this study focuses on Madagascar. This island is characterized by a great diversity of climate, due to trade winds and the varying topography. This country is also undergoing extreme rainfall events such as droughts and cyclones. Study focus the rain gauge network of Madagascar is limited (about 30 stations). Consequently, we consider relevant satellite-based precipitation datasets to fill gaps in ground-based datasets. We assessed the reliability of 21 satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products (P-datasets) through a direct comparison with 24 rain gauge station measurements at the monthly time step, using four statistical indicators: Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Bias. Based on this first analysis, we produced a merged dataset based on a weighted average of the 21 products. New hydrological insights for the region based on the KGE and the CC scores, WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim), CMORPH-BLD (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing satellite-gauge merged) and MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation) are the most accurate for estimating rainfall at the national scale. Additionally, the results reveal a high discrepancy between bio-climatic regions. The merged dataset reveals higher performance than the other products in all situations. These results demonstrate the usefulness of a merging approach in an area with a deficit of rainfall data and a climatic and topographic diversity.
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Musy, S., Meyzonnat, G., Barbecot, F., Hunkeler, D., Sültenfuss, J., Solomon, D. K., et al. (2021). In-situ sampling for krypton-85 groundwater dating. Journal of Hydrology X, 11, 100075.
Abstract: Krypton-85 and other radioactive noble gases are widely used for groundwater dating purposes. 85Kr analysis require large volumes of water to reach the analytical requirements. Conventionally, this water is pumped to the surface to be degassed with a gas extraction system. The large pumping rate may disturb the natural flow field and requires substantial field logistics. Hence, we propose a new in-situ degassing method, in which membrane contactors are used to degas the groundwater directly in the well and gas is collected at the surface. This way, field work is facilitated, groundwater system disturbance is minimized, and the gas sample is collected at a specific depth. We demonstrate the tightness of the system regarding atmospheric air contamination for a collection times of 24 h, which is sufficient for both low-level counting and laser-based counting methods for 85Kr. The minimal borehole diameter is 7.5 cm for the prototype presented in this research but can easily be reduced to smaller diameters. In a case study, we compare the results obtained with the new passive method with those from a conventional packer setup sampling. Additionally, 3H/3He samples were collected for both sampling regimes and the dating results were compared with those from 85Kr. A good agreement between tracer ages is demonstrated and the age stratigraphy is consistent with the expected age distribution for a porous unconfined aquifer. In addition, our study emphasizes the differences between the age information sampled with various methods. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the new in situ quasi-passive method provides a more representative age stratigraphy with depth in most cases.
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Leeuwen, Z. R. van, Klaar, M. J., Smith, M. W., & Brown, L. E. (2024). Quantifying the natural flood management potential of leaky dams in upland catchments, Part II: Leaky dam impacts on flood peak magnitude. Journal of Hydrology, 628, 130449.
Abstract: Leaky dams are an increasingly popular natural flood management measure, yet their impacts on flood peak magnitude have not yet been empirically quantified for a range of event types and magnitudes, even at the stream scale. In this study, the novel application of a transfer function noise modelling approach to empirical Before-After-Control-Impact stage data from an upland catchment allowed leaky dam effectiveness in reducing flood peak magnitude to be quantified. Flood peak stage and discharge magnitude changes were assessed from empirical data for 50 single and multi-peaked high flow events with return periods ranging from less than one year to six years. Overall, event peak magnitude was significantly reduced following the installation of eight leaky dams on the impact stream. Effectiveness was highly variable, but on average, flood peak magnitude was reduced by 10% for events with a return period up to one year. Some of the variability was explained by the size of the event and whether it was a single or multi-peaked event. This finding emphasises the need to manage expectations by considering both a range of event magnitudes and types when designing or assessing leaky dam natural flood management schemes.
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