Abstract: The crucial role which groundwater resource plays in our environment and the overall well-being of all living things can not be underestimated. Nonetheless, mismanagement of resources, over-exploitation, inadequate supply of surface water and pollution have led to severe drought and an overall drop in groundwater resources’ levels over the past decades. To address this, a groundwater flow model and several mathematical data-driven models have been developed for forecasting groundwater levels. However, there is a problem of unavailability and scarcity of the on-site input data needed by the data-driven models to forecast the groundwater level. Furthermore, as a result of the dynamics and stochastic characteristics of groundwater, there is a need for an appropriate, accurate and reliable forecasting model to solve these challenges. Over the years, the broad application of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models are gaining attraction as an alternative solution for forecasting groundwater levels. Against this background, this article provides an overview of forecasting methods for predicting groundwater levels. Also, this article uses ML models such as Regressions Models, Deep Auto-Regressive models, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks with External Input (NARX) to forecast groundwater levels using the groundwater region 10 at Karst belt in South Africa as a case study. This was done using Python Mx. Version 1.9.1., and MATLAB R2022a machine learning toolboxes. Moreover, the Coefficient of Determination (R2);, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mutual Information gain, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)) models were the forecasting statistical performance metrics used to assess the predictive performance of these models. The results obtained showed that NARX and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have higher performance metrics and accuracy compared to other models used in this study.

Abstract: Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

Abstract: Study region this study focuses on Madagascar. This island is characterized by a great diversity of climate, due to trade winds and the varying topography. This country is also undergoing extreme rainfall events such as droughts and cyclones. Study focus the rain gauge network of Madagascar is limited (about 30 stations). Consequently, we consider relevant satellite-based precipitation datasets to fill gaps in ground-based datasets. We assessed the reliability of 21 satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products (P-datasets) through a direct comparison with 24 rain gauge station measurements at the monthly time step, using four statistical indicators: Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Bias. Based on this first analysis, we produced a merged dataset based on a weighted average of the 21 products. New hydrological insights for the region based on the KGE and the CC scores, WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim), CMORPH-BLD (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing satellite-gauge merged) and MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation) are the most accurate for estimating rainfall at the national scale. Additionally, the results reveal a high discrepancy between bio-climatic regions. The merged dataset reveals higher performance than the other products in all situations. These results demonstrate the usefulness of a merging approach in an area with a deficit of rainfall data and a climatic and topographic diversity.

Abstract: The Niger Delta in Nigeria is a complex and heavily contaminated area with over 150,000 interconnected contaminated sites. This intricate issue is compounded by the region’s strong hydrological processes and high-energy environment, necessitating a science-based approach for effective contamination assessment and management. This study introduces the concept of sub-catchment contamination assessment and management, providing an overarching perspective rather than addressing each site individually. A description of the sub-catchment delineation process using the digital elevation model data from an impacted area within the Delta is provided. Additionally, the contamination status from the delineated sub-catchment is reported. Sediment, surface water and groundwater samples from the sub-catchment were analyzed for total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), respectively. Surface sediment TPH concentrations ranged from 129 to 20,600 mg/kg, with subsurface (2-m depth) concentrations from 15.5 to 729 mg/kg. PAHs in surface and subsurface sediment reached 9.55 mg/kg and 0.46 mg/kg, respectively. Surface water exhibited TPH concentrations from 10 to 620 mg/L, while PAHs ranged from below detection limits to 1 mg/L. Groundwater TPH concentrations spanned 3 to 473 mg/L, with total PAHs varying from below detection limits to 0.28 mg/L. These elevated TPH and PAH levels indicate extensive petroleum contamination in the investigated sediment and water environment. Along with severe impacts on large areas of mangroves and wetlands, comparison of TPH and PAH concentrations with sediment and water quality criteria found 54 to 100% of stations demonstrated exceedances, suggesting adverse biological effects on aquatic and sediment biota are likely occurring.