Abstract: Many studies highlight the decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Mediterranean region, making it a prominent hotspot. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and three groundwater demand scenarios on the water resources of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. While commonly used methods for quantifying groundwater recharge and water resources rely on regression models, it is important to acknowledge their limitations when assessing climate change impacts. Regression models and other data-driven approaches are effective within observed variability but may lack predictive power when extrapolated to conditions beyond historical fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment requires distributed process-based numerical models incorporating a broader range of relevant physical flow processes and, ideally, ensemble model projections. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and precipitation partitioning using a HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for variably saturated water flow coupled to a soil-epikarst water balance model in the WMA. The model input includes downscaled high-resolution climate projections until 2070 based on the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario. The results reveal a 5% to 10% decrease in long-term average groundwater recharge compared to a 30% reduction in average precipitation. The heterogeneity of karstic flow and increased intensity of individual rainfall events contribute to this mitigated impact on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation data. However, despite the moderate decrease in recharge, the study highlights the increasing length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values. It emphasizes the need to adjust current management practices to climate change, as freshwater demand is expected to rise during these periods. Additionally, the study examines the emergence of hydrogeological droughts and their propagation from the surface to the groundwater. The results suggest that the 48-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-48) is a suitable indicator for hydrogeological drought emergence due to reduced groundwater recharge.

Abstract: Geological storage of gases will be necessary in the push to net zero and the energy transition to reduce carbon emissions to atmosphere. These include CO2 geological storage in suitable sandstone reservoirs. Understanding groundwater flow, connectivity and hydrogeochemical processes in aquifer and storage systems is vital to prevent risk and protect important water resources, such as the Great Artesian Basin. Here, we provide a ‘tool-box’ of geochemical assessment methods to provide information on flow patterns through the basin’s aquifers (changes in chemistry along flow path), stagnant versus flowing conditions (cosmogenic isotopes and noble gases), inter-aquifer connectivity and seal properties (major ions, Sr and stable isotopes), water quality (major ions and metals) and general assessments on residence times of groundwater (cosmogenic isotopes and noble gases). This information can be used with reservoir and groundwater models to inform on possible changes in the above-mentioned processes and serve as input parameters for CO2 injection impact modelling. We demonstrate the use and interpretation on an example of a potential CO2 storage geological sequestration site in the Surat Basin, part of the Great Artesian Basin, and the aquifers that overly the reservoir. The stable water isotopes are depleted compared to average rainfall and most likely indicate greater contributions from monsoonal rain events from the northern monsoonal troughs, where amount and rainout effects lead to the depletion rather than colder recharge climates. This is supported by the modern recharge temperatures from noble gases. Inter-aquifer mixing between the Precipice Sandstone reservoir and the Hutton Sandstone aquifer seems unlikely as the Sr isotope ratios are distinctly different suggesting that the Evergreen Formation is a seal in the locations sampled. Mixing, however, occurs on the edges of the basin, especially in the south-east and east where the Surat Basin transitions into the Clarence-Moreton Basin. Groundwater flow appears to be to the south in the Precipice Sandstone, with a component of flow east to the Clarence-Morton Basin. The cosmogenic isotopes and noble gases strongly indicate very long residence times of groundwater in the central south Precipice Sandstone around a proposed storage site. 14C values below analytical uncertainty, R36Cl ratios at secular equilibrium as well as high He concentrations and high 40Ar/36Ar ratios support the argument that groundwater flow in this area is extremely slow or groundwater is stagnant. The results of this study reflect the geological and hydrogeological complexities of sedimentary basins and that baseline studies, such as this one, are paramount for management strategies.

Abstract: The rapid rate of urban expansion with its associated physical development in recent years conflicts with the urban ecosystem and the services it provides. In most Sub-Saharan African cities, rapid urban expansion often does not conform to existing spatial plans. Physical developments are sometimes carried out in unauthorized areas, contributing to urban floods. The Sub-Saharan African regions’ flood management strategies mainly focus on engineering solutions but have not been fully functional in mitigating urban floods. There is a scarcity of knowledge on how urban flood-related NBS measures can be part of the spatial development in Sub-Saharan African cities for effective flood management. In order to address this gap, this study employed content and text analysis of policy documents and interviews to understand how current spatial and flood mitigation schemes in Accra, Ghana reflect possible NBS applicability and identify possible approaches to integrating NBS into existing planning schemes to prevent urban floods. The study found that Accra’s spatial plans and flood mitigation schemes reflect a possibility of NBS integration. Additionally, the study unveiled techniques for integrating NBS measures and possible implementation barriers and facilitation in the Ghanaian context, which can be linked to combating the challenges that the Ghanaian spatial planning and flood management authorities face. The research, therefore, contributes to knowledge of how NBS can be integrated into spatial planning systems and flood mitigation schemes in Sub-Saharan African regions.

Abstract: Drawing on advances in nonstationary frequency analysis and the science of causation and attribution, this study employs a newly developed nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach to determine the effect of forest harvesting on snowmelt-generated floods. Moreover, this study furthers the application of stochastic physics to evaluate the environmental controls and drivers of flood response. Physically-based climate and time-varying harvesting data are used as covariates to drive the nonstationary flood frequency distribution parameters to detect, attribute, and quantify the effect of harvesting on floods in the snow-dominated Deadman River (878 km2) and nested Joe Ross Creek (99 km2) watersheds. Harvesting only 21% of the watershed caused a 38% and 84% increase in the mean but no increase in variability around the mean of the frequency distribution in the Deadman River and Joe Ross Creek, respectively. Consequently, the 7-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events became approximately two, four, six, and ten times more frequent in both watersheds. An increase in the mean is posited to occur from an increase in moisture availability following harvest from suppressed snow interception and increased net radiation reaching the snowpack. Variability was not increased because snowmelt synchronization was inhibited by the buffering capacity of abundant lakes, evenly distributed aspects, and widespread spatial distribution of cutblocks in the watersheds, preventing any potential for harvesting to increase the efficiency of runoff delivery to the outlet. Consistent with similar recent studies, the effect of logging on floods is controlled not only by the harvest rate but most importantly the physiographic characteristics of the watershed and the spatial distribution of the cutblocks. Imposed by the probabilistic framework to understanding and predicting the relation between extremes and their environmental controls, commonly used in the general sciences but not forest hydrology, it is the inherent nature of snowmelt-driven flood regimes which cause even modest increases in magnitude, especially in the upper tail of the distribution, to translate into surprisingly large changes in frequency. Contrary to conventional wisdom, harvesting influenced small, medium, and very large flood events, and the sensitivity to harvest increased with increasing flood event size and watershed area.

Abstract: Study Region: Bandung groundwater basin, Indonesia. Study focus: Groundwater abstraction of various magnitudes, pumped out from numerous depths in a multitude of layers of aquifers, stimulates different changes in hydraulic head distribution, including ones under vertical cross-sections. This generates groundwater flow in the vertical direction, where groundwater flows within its storage from the shallow to the underlying confined aquifers. In the Bandung groundwater basin, previous studies have identified such processes, but quantitative evaluations have never been conducted, with data scarcity mainly standing as one of the major challenges. In this study, we utilize the collated (1) environmental water tracer data, including major ion elements (Na+/K+, Ca2＋, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−,HCO3−), stable isotope data (2H and δ18O), and groundwater age determination (14C), in conjunction with (2) groundwater flow modeling to quantify the aquifer interaction, driven mainly by the multi-layer groundwater abstraction in the Bandung groundwater basin, and demonstrate their correspondence. In addition, we also use the model to quantify the impact of multi-layer groundwater abstraction on the spatial distribution of the groundwater level changes. New hydrological insights for the region: In response to the limited calibration data availability, we expand the typical model calibration that makes use of the groundwater level observations, with in-situ measurement and a novel qualitative approach using the collated environmental water tracers (EWT) data for the model evaluation. The analysis in the study area using EWT data and quantitative methods of numerical groundwater flow modeling is found to collaborate with each other. Both methods show agreement in their assessment of (1) the groundwater recharge spatial distribution, (2) the regional groundwater flow direction, (3) the groundwater age estimates, and (4) the identification of aquifer interaction. On average, the downwelling to the deeper aquifer is quantified at 0.110 m/year, which stands out as a significant component compared to other groundwater fluxes in the system. We also determine the unconfined aquifer storage volume decrease, calculated from the change in the groundwater table, resulting in an average declining rate of 51 Mm3/year. This number shows that the upper aquifer storage is dwindling at a rate disproportionate to its groundwater abstraction, hugely influenced by losses to the deeper aquifer. The outflow to the deeper aquifer contributes to 60.3% of the total groundwater storage lost, despite representing only 32.3% of the total groundwater abstraction. This study shows the possibility of quantification of aquifer interaction and groundwater level change dynamics driven by multi-layer groundwater abstraction in a multi-layer hydrogeological setting, even in a data-scarce environment. Applying such methods can assist in deriving basin-scale groundwater policies and management strategies under the changing anthropogenic and climatic factors, thereby ensuring sustainable groundwater management.