Abstract: A century of research has generated considerable disagreement on the effect of forests on floods. Here we call for a causal inference framework to advance the science and management of the effect of any forest or its removal on flood severity and frequency. The causes of floods are multiple and chancy and, hence, can only be investigated via a probabilistic approach. We use the stochastic hydrology literature to infer a blueprint framework which could guide future research on the understanding and prediction of the effects of forests on floods in environments where rain is the dominant form of precipitation. Drawing parallels from other disciplines, we show that the introduction of probability in forest hydrology could stimulate a gestalt switch in the science of forests and floods. In light of increasing flood risk caused by climate change, this probabilistic framework can help policymakers develop robust forest and water management plans based on a defensible and clear understanding of floods.

Abstract: The application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating in the Namib Desert is casting new light on late Quaternary environments. OSL has been applied to: (i) complex linear dunes, alongside ground penetrating radar stratigraphy in order to establish dune migration rates, (ii) fluvial lithofacies associations that distinguish between flood deposits and river end points, in order to constrain the timing of periods of higher discharge and conditions relatively drier than present and (iii) aeolian sand interbedded with carbonate deposits in order to provide chronologies for water-lain interdune sediments. We present and review the contribution of these data to enhancing reconstructions of the palaeoenvironments and palaeohydrology of the west coast of Namibia, particularly the increased confidence in interpretations provided by lithofacies analysis of the river deposits. This includes major silt deposits, which have had a contested palaeohydrological interpretation, such as the Kuiseb River Homeb Silts. We conclude that OSL should remain a key chronological technique to further elucidate the palaeoenvironmental history of southern Africa.

Abstract: Elevated groundwater nitrate levels are common in drylands, often in excess of WHO guidelines, with concern for human and animal health. In light of recent attempts to identify nitrate sources in the Kalahari this paper presents the first unsaturated zone (USZ) nitrate profiles and recharge rate estimates for the important transboundary Stampriet Basin, alongside the first rainfall chemistry records. Elevated subsurface nitrate reaches 100–250 and 250–525 mg/L NO3–N, with NO3–N/Cl of 4–12, indicating input above evapotranspiration. Chloride mass balance recharge rates range from 4 to 27 mm/y, indicating a vertical movement of these nitrate pulses toward the water table over multi-decadal timescales. These profiles are sampled from dune crests, away from high concentrations of animals and without termite mounds. Given low-density animal grazing is unlikely to contribute consistent spot-scale nitrate over decades, these profiles give an initial estimate of naturally-produced concentrations. This insight is important for the management of the Stampriet Basin and wider Kalahari groundwater. This study expands our knowledge about elevated nitrate in dryland USZs, demonstrating that it can occur as pulses, probably in response to transient vegetation cover and that it is not limited to long-residence time USZs with very limited downward moisture flux (recharge).