Abstract: Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

Abstract: Apart from some notable exceptions, the sound governance of transboundary aquifers (coupled or uncoupled to rivers) is seriously lacking in most regions of the world, despite a highly successful 20-year ISARM initiative. The distinction between regions of water abundance (as in the Haute Savoie–Geneva aquifers) and those of water scarcity (\textless1000 m3/an/capita), as in the Rum-Saq aquifer, ought to be a driver for the urgency in adopting sound governance. In the latter regions, however, such an urgent response faces too many hurdles (institutional, financial, and weak capacity). Climate change, one of the global megatrends (among demography, economic shift, resources stress, urbanization, and novel viruses such as COVID-19), will exacerbate the problem in the coming decade and beyond. This chapter provides an critical perspective on the status of this subsurface asset in 570 or so, domestic and transboundary aquifers of the world (self-identified by country experts), while taking full account of their interconnections, or not, with surface waters. This critical perspective will be grounded in two important factors, first the hiatus in adoption by countries of the evolving international water law and guidance on transboundary aquifers (the Draft Articles, which provide legal pathways for collaboration or eventually dispute resolution), and second the framework of the sustainable development goals (SDG) 6 (clean water and sanitation), which countries have committed themselves to with reference to transboundary waters. The critical perspective finds that despite the lack of momentum in adopting formal global norms, sporadic cooperation and collaboration is continuing and is well received, when delivered methodically through the support of international agencies. The findings of the critical perspective are that even if water-related SDGs will have been achieved across the world, it would contribute precious little to meaningful enhancement of governance of transboundary aquifers, unless they have been explicitly addressed in terms that are tangible to decision makers, such as the impact of disregarding them on the current or future national GDP. The onset of a “new socioeconomic normal” in the aftermath of COVID-19 could further defer meaningful progress, taking the example of Latin America, where a 5% decline has been forecast for 2020. With such declines in the finances of governments, attention to shared aquifer resources may well decline even further. Urgent wise reaction to this possibility must be a priority for the professional science-policy community.